Water and Climate Change
 

Several studies around the globe show that climatic change is likely to significantly impact the availability of water resources. At present, changes in cropping pattern and land-use pattern, over-exploitation of water storage and changes in irrigation and drainage are modifying the hydrological cycle in most of the climate regions and river basins of India.

A warmer climate will accelerate the hydrological cycle, altering rainfall, magnitude and timing of the run-off. Warm air holds more moisture and increases the evaporation of surface moisture. With more moisture in the atmosphere, rainfall and snowfall events tend to be more intense, increasing the potential for floods. However, if there is little or no moisture in the soil to evaporate, the incident solar radiation goes into raising the temperature, which could contribute to longer and more severe droughts. Therefore, change in climate will affect the soil moisture, groundwater recharge and frequency of flood or drought episodes and, finally, the groundwater level in different areas.

This is a serious issue in the Indian context since groundwater is the mainstay for meeting the domestic needs of more than 80% of rural and 50% of urban population, besides fulfilling the irrigation needs of around 50% of the irrigated agriculture. It has been estimated that 70–80% of the value of irrigated production in India comes from groundwater irrigation. Around two-fifths of India’s agricultural output is contributed from areas irrigated by groundwater.

Apart from water quantity, water quality is also likely to be deteriorated due to climate change impacts. Some of these influences are:

• Contaminated coastal surface and groundwater resources as a result of the rise in the sea level, resulting in saltwater intrusion into rivers, deltas, and aquifers

• Reduced groundwater availability, leading to higher chances of contamination with substances including fluoride, arsenic, nitrate and iron

• Increase in water temperatures, leading to more algal and bacterial blooms that further contaminate the water supplies

• Increase in the extreme precipitation and flooding, which will augment the erosion rates and wash soil-based pollutants and toxins into waterways

• Contributing to environmental health risks associated with water. For instance, changes in precipitation patterns are likely to increase flooding, and then mobilise even more pathogens and contaminants

Apart from agriculture and rural areas, the industry is also likely to face problems related to water scarcity. While there have been no India-specific studies so far to assess water-related risks on businesses, a new report by Ceres and the Pacific Institute evaluates water-related risks to eight water-intensive sectors globally: technology, beverage, food, electric power/energy, apparel, biotechnology / pharmaceuticals, forest products and mining. The main conclusion of the report is that each of these sectors faces serious near- and long-term economic risks related to their water dependence. Numerous industry sectors should expect decreased water allotments, shifts towards full-cost water pricing and ever-more stringent water quality regulations.

At the ecosystems scale, the resilience of many ecosystems and their ability to adapt naturally is likely to be exceeded by 2100 by an unprecedented combination of change in climate, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire) and other global change drivers (e.g., land-use change). Greater rainfall variability is likely to compromise wetlands through shifts in the timing, duration and depth of water levels. Of all the ecosystems, freshwater ecosystems will have the highest proportion of species threatened with extinction as a result of climate change.

Comprehensive Solutions

Considering the enormity of the challenges, improved approaches to land and water management are required to strengthen the resilience of the resource base and the populations who rely on them. Increased resilience is needed also to manage current development challenges as well as the future uncertainties and impacts of climate change. Such approaches are intricately connected with long-term strategies for sustainable development and poverty reduction. On a practical level, there is very little actually happening on the ground that is formally branded as work on water resources management and climate change. However, autonomous adaptations to climate variability have been recorded. While there is still a long way to go to define practical agendas for action which combine climate change and the provision of water for life, we shall look at some of the potential measures below.

Quantity

Adaptation options designed to ensure water availability during varying climatic conditions require integrated demand-side as well as supply-side strategies. Innovations in integrated water resource management, with approaches in both supply and demand management, have led to improvements in water resource sustainability in many parts of the world. Improved management of irrigation channels and pond construction, combined with soil erosion control, can improve the efficiency of water management systems. Rainwater harvesting efforts to recharge aquifers, particularly in parts of India, provide useful lessons for augmenting water supply in areas of increasing groundwater extraction and rainfall variability. In contexts of decreasing water availability and severe degradation, there have also been innovations for fodder and pasture management in rangeland production systems, such as improved production of appropriate indigenous varieties for fodder and forage species.

A key area for improvement is in the arena of water use efficiency, through the concept of R’s – Reduce, Reuse and Recycle. A large part of this can be achieved by awareness generation and provision of support services to the consumers. An expanded use of economic incentives - including metering and pricing - to encourage water conservation and development of water markets and implementation of virtual water trade also holds considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses.

Quality

For surface and groundwater ecosystems, attention needs to be given not only to the quantity but also the quality of water supply and pollution control, particularly in peri-urban areas. Landscape management plans that employ ‘patchy’ areas of semi-natural woods or grasslands may provide ecological buffers that reduce the adverse hydrological and ecological effects of urbanisation, and improve water-related ecosystem services. Although integrated management of peri-urban areas in this fashion will affect only small geographic areas, it will certainly reduce risks for very large populations of the urban poor.

Institutions

The presence and effectiveness of institutions will play a key role in integrating the impacts of climate change in mainstream planning. New resource co-management institutions that provide stronger roles for local institutions in governance for land and water management have demonstrated that they can be more responsive to local conditions as well as flexible enough to respond to uncertainty. However, they have also been criticised for exacerbating current social inequities, and for their limited management expertise and capacity, lack of budgetary support and for the confusion caused by new management organisations, further weakening the existing local government bodies. Role clarity, accountability and broader access to information will be important in the sense that these new resource management institutions can function effectively. This requires linkages with governance mechanisms, scientific resources and socio-economic networks at multiple scales.

The experience with land and water management suggests that local adaptive responses will have to employ integrated and holistic approaches across sectors, and with as much attention to livelihoods, social relations, governance and human capital as to ecosystem function. Building adaptive capacity means moving away from prescriptive management towards enabling strategies that help the rural women and men to build their asset base, thereby enhancing resilience to environmental and economic shocks. These approaches can be supported by local-level adaptation planning and practice that is inclusive, participatory and learning-oriented. Local adaptation approaches can reinforce new strategies for land and water management, but should link to national and regional decision-making in order to ensure appropriate information, policy coordination, integrated planning and shared learning for effective adaptive management. Some of the measures recommended are:

• Focus on ‘linked-up’ cross-sectoral approaches to water resources management planning (e.g., integration with land, agricultural and mining sectors), systematically considering the implications of climate change within these approaches. In reality, the institutional frameworks necessary for good sectoral integration are barely in place in India. It is important, however, that an integrated approach to water management remains the ultimate aim in development planning and that steps are taken towards this end, such as encouraging good communication between ministerial departments and ensuring synergy between sectors as far as possible in policy planning and implementation.

• Ensure a pro-poor approach to water resources management that encompasses a range of solutions differentiated according to the needs of different groups. In the last three decades, India has made a tremendous effort to develop large infrastructure schemes that will meet water needs for key economic sectors, cities and rural areas. However, communities that are particularly vulnerable to climate change and variability should be targeted, and appropriate sustainable solutions that reflect their needs and interests should be prioritised over stand-alone infrastructure investments.

• Ensure that climate risk information - where available - is made accessible and used to inform water planning strategies. Existing climate knowledge generated by specialist national and regional institutions should be translated into comprehensible formats and shared widely. The establishment of regional research centres that collate information about climate risk from all relevant sources can be a potential way forward. It is essential that this information is not retained for use solely at the central level and is accessible to the poor and vulnerable communities. In addition, further climate risk studies should be funded to inform the people about the water policy in areas where the information is currently lacking.

• Strengthen the adaptive capacity at the local level by supporting localised water resources approaches that are adapting to climate variability, and recognise that these can play a key role in national water policy planning. Technical and financial support is needed to help develop long-term sustainable adaptation solutions by building upon current local approaches. Additional technical advice and access to micro-credit to fund investments are examples of resources required to support communities to adapt their water usage. Examples of local interventions that could potentially be replicated and developed, include:

• Development of rain-fed agricultural systems that are easy to operate and maintain at the local level

• Improved management of soil moisture in rain-fed areas

• Increased investment in water harvesting and small storage schemes

• Small-scale community based irrigation schemes

• Improved smallholder-based irrigation schemes

• Development of water supply to meet multiple and diverse water users

• Improved water access for livestock in arid and semi-arid areas

The need of the hour is to respond to the needs of communities, for livelihoods and cultures alter as a result of climate change and water scarcity. We have to ensure availability of information and learning opportunities for income diversification in the semi-arid climate, and improve the access to education on a broader scale for poor and vulnerable people.

Research Needs

IPCC has clearly identified that several gaps in knowledge exist in terms of observations and research needs related to climate change and water. Observational data and data access are prerequisites for adaptive management, yet many observational networks are shrinking. There is a need to improve understanding and modelling of climate changes related to the hydrological cycle at scales relevant to decision making. Information about the water-related impacts of climate change is inadequate – especially with respect to water quality, aquatic ecosystems and groundwater – including their socio-economic dimensions. Finally, current tools to facilitate the integrated appraisals of adaptation and mitigation options across multiple water-dependent sectors are as yet inadequate.

Conclusion

As the world continues its current patterns of production and consumption, the future is at great risk. It is no longer possible for us to seek solutions for individual problems in an isolated manner. Meeting challenges in climate and water calls for, among other things, switching to food systems that conserve water and that are net emission mitigators. Today’s leaders have the opportunity to invest in multifunctional agricultural systems and agro-ecological practices that will help mitigate climate change problems, help conserve land and water resources, and simultaneously build up vibrant rural communities for whom agriculture is a rewarding way of life. We know how to chart this path. What is most needed is the collective political will to move in a direction that is sustainable, equitable and fair. q
 

Udit Mathur
umathur@devalt.org
Manoj Kumar
mkumar@devalt.org