ndia is both
famous and infamous for its development trajectory. As famously put by
Arundhati Roy, people in India are on two different trucks. While one of
the trucks is speeding towards lifestyles governed by consumerist
luxuries for comfortable living; the other truck is rolling down the
road where mere existence is a struggle in the continuous shrinking
space and resources available to those riding it. The latter are also
the majority bearing the burden of the benefits of growth for the few
and waiting for some of these benefits to trickle down to them too.
This analogy is substantiated with the exemplary
performance of the economic sectors amassing great wealth in the nation,
with the number of billionaires more than doubling in the last six years
(Forbes Billionaires List). This is in parallel to approximately 680
million, more than 50 per cent of the country’s population, who at
present cannot even meet their essential needs (McKinsey Global
Institute, 2014).
Peculiarities of GDP – India’s Development Measure
Details of economic literature are not required to
identify peculiarities of GDP. India’s recent growth story is a good
case study. India’s GDP grew from 7.2% in December 2015 to 7.9% in March
2016. This seems to be a reason for much celebration. However, on
decoding the rate of growth number, Mohan Guruswamy identified that50%
of the GDP growth in this cycle came from discrepancies like increase in
One Rank One Pension kind of schemes and as a result of reinterpretation
of data by changing the methodology of calculating GDP. The new GDP
removes tax cuts from consumption, resulting in a higher number (Guruswamy,
2016).
GDP - Not truly representative of development
While this is one of the most recent happenings in
India’s economics and development, there are many cases that
substantiate the fact that GDP is not a true representative of
development. This can be illustrated with a story of three friends -
Raul, Ram and Rahim, who were playing a game of cards near India Gate in
Delhi one night. Raul lost INR 20,000 to Ram on one chance.In consequent
games, Ram lost INR 20,000 to Rahim and Rahim lost INR 20,000 to Raul.
The net benefit that the three friends received is zero, as each lost
and won the same amount. But if GDP were to be calculated in this case,
it would turn out to be INR 60,000!
Higher GDP does translate to poverty reduction
Just as there are enough cases to show how GDP can
grow out of discrepancies and not actual development; there is also
enough evidence to show that ‘growth and money-flow’ in a system, does
translates into better social outcomes. Using data from nearly 80
countries, Kray (2006) shows that in the medium-to-long-run, 66–90% of
the variation in changes in poverty can be accounted for by growth in
average incomes and all of the remainder is due to changes in relative
incomes. The role of economic growth in poverty reduction has also been
supported by Deaton and Drèze (2001) and Bhagwati (2001). Sen (1996) has
strongly emphasised the need for higher government expenditure on social
assistance to the poor, especially in provision of education as the most
important determinant of poverty reduction. However, since government
social expenditure that helps the poor is dependent on government
revenue, which in turn grows with economic growth, the key role of
economic growth in fuelling social development is expected. (Agarwal,
2015)
The question is not - GDP or no GDP; the question is
to track growth where it is most meaningful and where it generates most
desirable and lasting value
While GDP is a proxy indicator for growth and comes
with a caution of its interpretation and source of growth, the actual
question is:
"Is the economic growth of today resulting in better
and more sustainable outcomes for All citizens equitably?"
It is important to identify economic systems that can
ensure equitable social and human development outcomes within the
ecological limits of the planet. Conditions of natural resources are
closely linked with economic growth as well as human development. While
natural resources are primary inputs into production processes, output
from production systems (pollution, wastes from brown production
systems) impact the quality of natural systems. The state of natural
systems strongly impacts the quality of people’s lives, especially the
poor who most depend on them for their survival and livelihoods. We also
see control of resources in the hands of a few and powerful. This blocks
benefits from resource use to the poor.
What kind of economic growth is translating to
positive development outcomes?
Decent jobs and sustainable livelihoods being the
need of the hour, it is estimated that 52 million ‘un-skilled’ youth
will remain to be dependent on social security of MGNREGA for the next
20 years for the minimum basic 100 days employment. This is a clear
indication of a gap in the nature of people’s skills and job
opportunities in the market in India. While there is a demand and skill
mis-match
at one end, the other side of the growth is making robots compete with
people. A recent study highlights how India’s tech giants are replacing
workers with robots (BOTS) – resulting in higher revenues but no jobs.
(Jain, 2016)
Jobs are not an entitlement in a market economy
but the above trends show that there is a need for economic systems that
ensure:
Jobs and
livelihoods that do not erode the natural capital on which these and
others are dependent.
India cannot afford but to move towards a green and
inclusive economy
Green economy is one that is resilient and provides a
better quality of life for all within the ecological limits of the
planet. The country is already running at almost twice its bio-capacity.
With the current development model concentrating on GDP, India has to
address the challenge of ensuring decent living standards for its people
and also maintaining the health of its ecological systems. There is no
way that India will be able to achieve these two objectives unless our
economic systems result in better and more sustainable outcomes for the
society and the environment. Performance of India’s economic systems
have to be tracked not just in amassing wealth but its role in bridging
the gap between the rich and the poor. The development pathways also
need to address the growing conflicts between the rich and the poor: the
forest dwellers/ farmers and the industrialists, especially in the case
of mining and big economic development projects. Green and inclusive
economy, as an approach aims to assess economic models against promising
and positive people and planet outcomes and thus is a backbone for
sustainable development.
Sustainable Development Goals and NITI Aayog’s 15
year plan is a big opportunity
Better social and environmental outcomes from our
economic systems will be the key for India to achieve the Sustainable
Development Goals by 2030. India has initiated the formulation of a
15-year National Development Plan to be launched in 2017. At the same
time the national and state governments are devising plans and targets
to achieve the SDGs. Clearly it is an opportunity to develop a new score
card of progress to measure growth outcomes of the economic models, not
just as the measure of financial transactions (GDP) but as an impact on
people and environment.
While planning is important and helpful, it must be
understood that it cannot be imposed on people. The sustainability
policy needs to be developed and implemented in a participatory manner.
This is the bedrock of democracy. Thus process indicators and outcomes
are as important and must not be ignored.
In the formulation of the 15-year Sustainable
Development Plan, a key consideration has to be on the integrated nature
of development goals and targets. Thus, linear and siloed sectoral
planning will need to give way to systems approaches that reflect the
interplay between social, political and economic forces and inter-sectoral
relationships. Forecasting and scenario building in a dynamic changing
environment that is impacted by climate change, social upheavals and
technological leaps is required for the plan for a sustainable future.
Having said all of this, it is important to
understand that ‘Green Economy’ is no magic wand. It is an approach. The
challenge in India is not merely the concept of development but also a
rather systematic implementation at the ground level (Paul) and needs to
be taken on equal priority while devising India’s strategy to achieve
sustainable development by 2030.