India Cannot Afford to Miss
the Opportunity in Green Economy

 

India – The Land of Contrasts

India is both famous and infamous for its development trajectory. As famously put by Arundhati Roy, people in India are on two different trucks. While one of the trucks is speeding towards lifestyles governed by consumerist luxuries for comfortable living; the other truck is rolling down the road where mere existence is a struggle in the continuous shrinking space and resources available to those riding it. The latter are also the majority bearing the burden of the benefits of growth for the few and waiting for some of these benefits to trickle down to them too.

This analogy is substantiated with the exemplary performance of the economic sectors amassing great wealth in the nation, with the number of billionaires more than doubling in the last six years (Forbes Billionaires List). This is in parallel to approximately 680 million, more than 50 per cent of the country’s population, who at present cannot even meet their essential needs (McKinsey Global Institute, 2014).

Peculiarities of GDP – India’s Development Measure

Details of economic literature are not required to identify peculiarities of GDP. India’s recent growth story is a good case study. India’s GDP grew from 7.2% in December 2015 to 7.9% in March 2016. This seems to be a reason for much celebration. However, on decoding the rate of growth number, Mohan Guruswamy identified that50% of the GDP growth in this cycle came from discrepancies like increase in One Rank One Pension kind of schemes and as a result of reinterpretation of data by changing the methodology of calculating GDP. The new GDP removes tax cuts from consumption, resulting in a higher number (Guruswamy, 2016).

GDP - Not truly representative of development

While this is one of the most recent happenings in India’s economics and development, there are many cases that substantiate the fact that GDP is not a true representative of development. This can be illustrated with a story of three friends - Raul, Ram and Rahim, who were playing a game of cards near India Gate in Delhi one night. Raul lost INR 20,000 to Ram on one chance.In consequent games, Ram lost INR 20,000 to Rahim and Rahim lost INR 20,000 to Raul. The net benefit that the three friends received is zero, as each lost and won the same amount. But if GDP were to be calculated in this case, it would turn out to be INR 60,000!

Higher GDP does translate to poverty reduction

Just as there are enough cases to show how GDP can grow out of discrepancies and not actual development; there is also enough evidence to show that ‘growth and money-flow’ in a system, does translates into better social outcomes. Using data from nearly 80 countries, Kray (2006) shows that in the medium-to-long-run, 66–90% of the variation in changes in poverty can be accounted for by growth in average incomes and all of the remainder is due to changes in relative incomes. The role of economic growth in poverty reduction has also been supported by Deaton and Drèze (2001) and Bhagwati (2001). Sen (1996) has strongly emphasised the need for higher government expenditure on social assistance to the poor, especially in provision of education as the most important determinant of poverty reduction. However, since government social expenditure that helps the poor is dependent on government revenue, which in turn grows with economic growth, the key role of economic growth in fuelling social development is expected. (Agarwal, 2015)

The question is not - GDP or no GDP; the question is to track growth where it is most meaningful and where it generates most desirable and lasting value

While GDP is a proxy indicator for growth and comes with a caution of its interpretation and source of growth, the actual question is:

"Is the economic growth of today resulting in better and more sustainable outcomes for All citizens equitably?"

It is important to identify economic systems that can ensure equitable social and human development outcomes within the ecological limits of the planet. Conditions of natural resources are closely linked with economic growth as well as human development. While natural resources are primary inputs into production processes, output from production systems (pollution, wastes from brown production systems) impact the quality of natural systems. The state of natural systems strongly impacts the quality of people’s lives, especially the poor who most depend on them for their survival and livelihoods. We also see control of resources in the hands of a few and powerful. This blocks benefits from resource use to the poor.

What kind of economic growth is translating to positive development outcomes?

Decent jobs and sustainable livelihoods being the need of the hour, it is estimated that 52 million ‘un-skilled’ youth will remain to be dependent on social security of MGNREGA for the next 20 years for the minimum basic 100 days employment. This is a clear indication of a gap in the nature of people’s skills and job opportunities in the market in India. While there is a demand and skill mis-match at one end, the other side of the growth is making robots compete with people. A recent study highlights how India’s tech giants are replacing workers with robots (BOTS) – resulting in higher revenues but no jobs. (Jain, 2016)

Jobs are not an entitlement in a market economy but the above trends show that there is a need for economic systems that ensure:

Opportunities of decent and stable jobs and livelihoods for all people.

Quality learning outcomes for people for active participation in economic activities.

The right mix of technology without undermining the critical need of job creation.

Jobs and livelihoods that do not erode the natural capital on which these and others are dependent.

India cannot afford but to move towards a green and inclusive economy

Green economy is one that is resilient and provides a better quality of life for all within the ecological limits of the planet. The country is already running at almost twice its bio-capacity. With the current development model concentrating on GDP, India has to address the challenge of ensuring decent living standards for its people and also maintaining the health of its ecological systems. There is no way that India will be able to achieve these two objectives unless our economic systems result in better and more sustainable outcomes for the society and the environment. Performance of India’s economic systems have to be tracked not just in amassing wealth but its role in bridging the gap between the rich and the poor. The development pathways also need to address the growing conflicts between the rich and the poor: the forest dwellers/ farmers and the industrialists, especially in the case of mining and big economic development projects. Green and inclusive economy, as an approach aims to assess economic models against promising and positive people and planet outcomes and thus is a backbone for sustainable development.

Sustainable Development Goals and NITI Aayog’s 15 year plan is a big opportunity

Better social and environmental outcomes from our economic systems will be the key for India to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. India has initiated the formulation of a 15-year National Development Plan to be launched in 2017. At the same time the national and state governments are devising plans and targets to achieve the SDGs. Clearly it is an opportunity to develop a new score card of progress to measure growth outcomes of the economic models, not just as the measure of financial transactions (GDP) but as an impact on people and environment.

While planning is important and helpful, it must be understood that it cannot be imposed on people. The sustainability policy needs to be developed and implemented in a participatory manner. This is the bedrock of democracy. Thus process indicators and outcomes are as important and must not be ignored.

In the formulation of the 15-year Sustainable Development Plan, a key consideration has to be on the integrated nature of development goals and targets. Thus, linear and siloed sectoral planning will need to give way to systems approaches that reflect the interplay between social, political and economic forces and inter-sectoral relationships. Forecasting and scenario building in a dynamic changing environment that is impacted by climate change, social upheavals and technological leaps is required for the plan for a sustainable future.

Having said all of this, it is important to understand that ‘Green Economy’ is no magic wand. It is an approach. The challenge in India is not merely the concept of development but also a rather systematic implementation at the ground level (Paul) and needs to be taken on equal priority while devising India’s strategy to achieve sustainable development by 2030. q

Anshul S Bhamra
abhamra@devalt.org

 

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