Climate Change Adaptive Planning
 

Introduction

Anthropogenic climate change is associated with substantial risks for society and nature. The two fundamental societal response options for reducing these risks are mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. In the climate change context, mitigation means limiting global climate change by reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases or enhancing their sinks. Adaptation means actions targeted at the vulnerable system in response to actual or expected climate stimuli with the objective of moderating harm from climate change or exploiting opportunities (McCarthy et al., 2001).

Background

According to IPCC, ‘Climate Change is a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forces, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.’ But, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), climate change is defined as ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’ The UNFCCC thus highlights the dissimilarity between climate change attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition, and climate variability attributable to natural causes. In contrast, the IPCC takes a broader view on ‘climate change’ and states that climate change can occur as a result of natural variability and human activity.

Reasons behind Climate Change

Carbon dioxide is undoubtedly the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in land use pattern, deforestation, land clearing, agriculture, and other activities have all led to a rise in the emission of carbon dioxide. Methane, another important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, is released from animals such as dairy cows, goats, pigs, buffaloes, camels, horses and sheep Methane is also emitted during the process of oil drilling, coal mining, leaking gas pipelines, landfills and waste dumps.

Deforestation continues to be one of the top climate change contributors. Deforestation is primarily connected with tropical rainforests. These ancient forests are huge carbon sinkers and absorb large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere. This means that the destruction of these forests not only creates new emissions but also reduces the total forests cover, doubling the negative impact on climate change.

Impacts

A large proportion of the Indian population lives in rural areas and depends heavily on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and forestry for its livelihood. Various studies reveal that climate change will lead to a decrease in crop and animal produce, especially in tropical countries like India, increasing the risk of hunger, malnutrition and poverty, as the availability of food and opportunities for livelihood across sectors will be affected. On the other hand, it will affect the demand and corresponding changes in crop prices. In the report of IPCC 2004, future impacts were also predicted, which include irregular and unpredictable monsoon, melting of the Himalayan glaciers, an increase in the sea level as well as rise in the frequency and intensity of floods. Out of these, phenomenom like irregular and unpredictable monsoon are already becoming a common occurrence these days. And all this will lead to reduced availability of fresh water, threaten world food security, affect agricultural production as also the people dependent on it, adversely impact natural ecosystems and human health, and exacerbate existing coastal zone problems across a densely populated coast line. Furthermore, a rise in sea levels could damage coastal regions through flooding and erosion.

Increase in population means rise in demand for food and grains but the land in use for agriculture is limited; in fact, it is diminishing day by day because of ecological degradation. As a result, high-yield varieties of crops are grown to fulfill the increasing demand for food and grains. However, such high-yielding varieties of crops require large quantities of fertilisers; and more fertiliser means greater emissions of nitrous oxide, both from the field into which it is put and the fertiliser industry that makes it. The run-off of fertiliser into water bodies also results in more pollution.

Decision analysis and accumulated experience with past adaptation assessments suggest that the following principles are robust and important:

The larger the importance of climatic factors compared with non-climatic factors to a particular decision, and the larger the potential increase in risks due to climate change, the greater is the need for a detailed assessment of the risks associated with climate change.

The better the knowledge about future changes in climate risks, the more specific is the action possible now.

The less the experience in managing a specific risk, the greater is the need for new and additional action.

When current climate risks are large, addressing these risks in combination with future climate change is usually the most effective and efficient adaptation strategy.

If low-regret or no-regret options exist (i.e., actions whose costs in a broad sense are small or even negative under all plausible climate scenarios), planned adaptation does not necessarily depend on reliable climate impact projections.

Source: Fusel, H.M; 9 May 2007; Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2007; Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons

Why should Climate Change be Included in Planning?

Adaptation has become an important issue in international and domestic discussions on climate change. Adaptation Assessment refers to the practice of identifying options to adapt to climate change and evaluate them in terms of criteria such as availability, benefits, costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and feasibility. (IPCC TAR, 2001a).

As a result of the verious reasons mentioned below, adaptation is considered prior to mitigation. First of all, anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions are already affecting average climate conditions and climate extremes (Hegerl and Zwiers 2007). Even the relatively small magnitude of climate change observed so far has had substantial impacts on many natural and social systems (Casassa and Rosenzweig 2007). Second, climate will continue to change for the predictable future. As a result of the greenhouse gases emitted in the past and the inertia of the climate system, the rate of global warming in the next few decades is projected to be substantially faster than in the past, largely irrespective of the emission scenario (Meehl and Stocker 2007). Third, the effect of emission reduction takes at least several decades to become fully apparent, whereas most adaptation measures have a much shorter lead time. Fourth, adaptation can be implemented on a local or regional scale, and its efficacy is less dependent on the actions of others. Finally, many measures undertaken to adapt to climate change have important ancillary benefits, for example, reducing current climate-sensitive risks.

How Can It be Included?

Mainstreaming refers to the integration of adaptation objectives, strategies, policies, measures or operations in such a way that they become part of the national and regional development policies, processes and budgets at all levels and stages (UNDP, 2005). The term is also used to describe the process of integrating adaptation to climate change into development assistance (e.g., Klein 2002; Agrawala 2005). Although some broader or narrower interpretations are possible, the term is often associated with the process of taking into consideration potential climate change impacts when making investment or development assistance decisions. Usually, ‘mainstreaming’ is used interchangeably with ‘integration’. Adaptation involves reducing the impacts of climate change that are happening now and increasing elasticity to future impacts, taking into account the urgent and immediate needs of the developing countries that are particularly vulnerable.

Accurate information about future climate change often reduces the total costs of adaptation. Adaptation includes well-established practices from disaster risk management (e.g., early warning systems), coastal management (e.g., structural protection), resource management (e.g., water rights allocation), spatial planning (e.g., flood zone protection), urban planning (e.g., building codes), public health (e.g., disease surveillance), and agricultural outreach (e.g., seasonal forecasts). Concern about climate change has triggered the development of new options for coping with unprecedented climate conditions. For instance, one spectacular example from the Netherlands involves the construction of floating settlements that can sustain repeated flooding (van Ogtrop et al., 2005; de Graaf et al., 2006).

Different Approaches towards Climate Change Adaptive Planning

Planned adaptation to climate change means the use of information about present and future climate change to review the suitability of current and planned practices, policies, and infrastructure. Adaptation planning involves addressing questions such as: How will future climatic and non-climatic conditions differ from those of the past? Do the expected changes matter to current decisions? What is a suitable balance between the risks of acting (too) early and those of acting (too) late? Eventually, adaptation planning is about making recommendations about who should do what more, less, or differently, and with what resources.

National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is an adaptation approach of United Nations Climate Change. The objective is addressing adaptation in the Least Developed Countries (LDC) through NAPA. In the NAPA process, importance is given to community level input as an important source of information, recognising the fact that grassroots communities are the main stakeholders. NAPAs take into account the existing coping strategies at the grassroots level and build thereon to identify priority activities, rather than focusing on scenario-based modeling to assess future vulnerability and long-term policy at the state level. NAPAs are, therefore, designed to use existing information, without the need for additional comprehensive assessments and research before the plans can be completed. They must be action-oriented, country driven, flexible and based on national circumstances. Finally, NAPA documents should be presented in a simple format that can be easily understood by policy level decision makers as well as the public.

In India, the first step of approach for addressing climate change adaptation is to identify the critical regions which are vulnerable to climate change. In order to do so, current and future exposure to climate risks as well as adaptive capacity need to be mapped out. It is suggested to develop a climate vulnerability index for India, which combines the most relevant bio-physical and socioeconomic parameters which determine adaptive capacity. Future exposure is to be driven from climate and climate impact scenarios. The impacts of climate change currently predicted for India include a rise of up to four degrees Celsius in surface air temperature by 2100, a decline by almost a third in yields from certain rain-fed grain crops, and a rising number of extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods and cyclones. To cope with the risks, therefore, interventions will have to be well designed, especially to suit the different states and regions. To prepare for the impacts of climate change, in 2008 the Indian prime minister launched the country’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC).

The multi-level approach involving several different components was used by GIZ in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal’s vulnerable population groups to adapt to climate change and climatic variations.

Development Alternative (DA) is trying to strengthen capacity building in an endeavour to cope with changing climate in Harodi district of Uttar Pradesh. The first step of methodology is the preparation of a report based on literature review. In the next stage, based on primary and secondary information, the vulnerability profile of the selected sites will be produced. On the basis of available options of adapting capacity of the communities, a guidance report will be produced, integrating the findings of vulnerability assessments into adaptive planning and also local communities to cope with climate change with the help of training and workshops. q

K. Sweta
ksweta@devalt.org

References
1. A Primer, Disaster Risk Management, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, April 2005
2. Fussel.H.-M., Adaptation Planning for Climate Change Concepts; Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer; 9 May 2007
3. Smit Barry and Johanna Wandel, Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability, Global Environmental Change 16 (2006) 282–292; 8 March 2006

 

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