In the land of the rising sun

Kalipada Chatterjee

The Third Conference of Parties (COP3) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in the beautiful and historic city of Kyoto, Japan. The conference was inaugurated by Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto of Japan. Kyoto was the capital of Japan from 794 to 1867. It is surrounded by Mount Hiei, Mount Atago and Mount Kurama, which provided a beautiful backdrop with pagodas and temples. More than 10,000 government delegates, NGOs and other observers, and youth organisations from all over the globe assembled in this historic city to attend the COP3.

Michael Zammit Cutajar, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC, in his statement said, "It is not too late for all negotiators, and the interests they represent, to raise their sights from the defence of the present, to the protection of the future, to look beyond current economic turmoil towards a future well being that is prosperous, equitable and respectful of nature. It is those who have built their strength often through unsustainable economic growth who must lead the way towards a sustainable future." Turning to the main issue of the agenda, he underlined the importance of ensuring the credibility of the targets to be adopted for the reduction of emissions from industrialised countries. He further said that credibility should also be the guiding principle for the verification and review of actions under the protocol.
 

Events leading to COP3 in Kyoto

The landmark conference on human environment in Stockholm in 1972 was the first international effort to focus on the human impact on environment and the need to protect it. But it took 20 years for the international community to concretise actions in the form of a Convention on Climate Change at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in June 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, popularly known as the Rio Earth Summit.

At the Rio Earth Summit, delegates from over 154 countries signed a multilateral environmental treaty that provides a Framework Convention on Climate Change. The UNFCCC came into force on March 21, 1994.

Supported by the first Scientific Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990), the UNFCCC set the objective of the Convention to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level was to be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow the ecosystem to adapt naturally to climate change and to ensure that food production is not threatened and economic development proceeds in a sustainable manner.

All Parties (developed and developing) to the Convention also undertook commitments taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional development objectives and circumstances, to periodically update, publish and make available national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and the removal by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies etc. The industrialised (Annex 1) country parties, in addition, aimed to bring down their greenhouse gases emissions to their 1990 levels by the year 2000.

As per the Convention (Article 7.3), the first Conference of the Parties (COP1) was convened by the Climate Change Secretariat during March 28 - April 7, 1995 in Berlin. By the time the COP-1 met in Berlin it became very clear that most of the developed countries had not initiated measures to achieving their current aim of returning greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. In fact, a number of highly industrialised countries had increased their greenhouse gas emissions by 10-15 per cent from 1990 levels.

The Global NGO Meet in Berlin in March 1995 very aptly decided that ‘Rio is not enough’ and called for higher commitments by the developed countries. The Convention had been silent on measures and actions for stabilisation of concentrations of greenhouse gases beyond 2000. The issue of emission cuts beyond 2000 by the developed countries during the COP1 became the main issue. Besides national communications from the Annex I countries, describing their efforts to implement the Convention, institutional arrangements and rules of procedure, the most important agenda for the COP1 in Berlin was the ‘Adequacy of Commitment of the Annex-I country Parties, and their additional commitments.’ This was reflected in the Berlin Mandate. An Adhoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) was established by COP-1 to begin a process to enable it to take appropriate action for the period beyond 2000 through adoption of a protocol or another legal instrument, including strengthening the commitments of Annex I Parties in Article 4.2(a) and (b) and continuing to advance the implementation of the existing Article 4.1 of the Convention. The AGBM met eight times during the course of two and a half years. Many issues remained unresolved, particularly the issue of strengthening the commitments of Annex I countries, and quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives (QELROs), for decisions to be taken in the COP-3 in Kyoto, Japan during December 1-10, 1997. Developing countries had no commitment under the Berlin Mandate.
 

Science of Climate Change and Stabilisation of Greenhouse Gases

Over 2,000 experts from nearly 100 countries from academia, governments, industry and environmental organisations participated in the preparation and peer review of the IPCC Second Scientific Assessment. Some of the key findings are: inspite of considerable uncertainties, the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate; the earth’s climate is becoming warmer, in fact the global mean surface temperatures increased by between about 0.3 and 0.6 degrees celsius since the late 19th century; precipitation patterns are changing and the sea level is rising; without policies to limit greenhouse emissions, the earth’s climate is projected to warm by 1.0 to 3.5 degrees celsius by 2100, accompanied by a sea-level rise of 15 to 95 cms: in most parts of the world, climate change is projected to adversely effect: human health (an increase in the incidence of heat stress mortality and vector borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue); ecological systems (degradation of forests and coral reefs; agriculture (reduced yields in the tropics and sub-tropics); human settlements (the displacement of tens of millions of people because of sea level rise) and water resources particularly in the areas already water stressed; developing countries are most vulnerable because of their lack of resources for adaptation; costs of inaction are not insignificant, and due to inertia of the climate system only half or less of the global warming has so far occurred, and due to irreversibility of the process, once global warming occurs, it will not disappear quickly.

As regards stabilisation of carbon dioxide (CO2) at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, if no measures are taken now, the CO2 concentrations during the 10 years 2000-2010 would increase by 20 parts per million by volume – at present it is 360 parts per million by volume (Bert Bolin; Robert Watson, IPCC).


Some Views Heard in the COP3 Plenaries

"Some of the most important first steps we can take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will produce economic as well as environmental benefits. The concept of ‘eco-efficiency’ articulated and implemented by some of the world’s leading industrialists makes it clear that efficiency in the use of energy and materials, and in the prevention and disposal of wastes, contributes to economic performance and competitiveness. The world’s richest countries acknowledge their principal responsibility for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Leadership on their part is clearly the way forward, and I urge them to commit to cuts that are significant, binding and verifiable ...

The position of developing countries requires special consideration, and I sincerely hope this issue will not be a stumbling block to agreement here in Kyoto." Message of the Secretary General, UN, delivered by Maurice Strong.

"A lot of work had been done before Kyoto, which makes the Kyoto Conference uniquely ripe for our critical decision. To avoid irreversible planetary changes, the ministers and other heads of delegations, gathered in Kyoto representing the citizens of the earth, should take concerted and decisive action to seek a lasting solution to the global challenge of climate change." Hiroshi Ohki, Environment Minister of Japan and President COP-3.

"The majority of the developing countries will be the worst victims of climate change but they would be the least able to cope because of their limited resources... The speeches from P.M Hashimoto and Vice President Gore have failed to provide the much sought leadership." Gurmit Singh, CANSEA Coordinator.

"The problem is that these negotiations for the past five years have been detached from reality. For five years we have listened to interventions from countries explaining why they should do less and why others should do more. For five years we have watched the fossil fuel industry manipulate and damage these negotiations. There is a clear mandate to adopt a protocol ... and the protocol’s structure must ensure that these commitments are credible and verifiable, which should include regular review of the adequacy of commitments, and a compliance system that gives meaning to the words "legally binding" and ensures that the commitments are enforceable." Jennifer Morgan, Climate Action Network.

"The Berlin Mandate was adopted to strengthen the commitments of the developed countries. The key developing country parties at the same time are already applying policies and measures that, in fact, are mitigating climate change ... between 1987 and 1993 non-Annex I Parties as a group recorded a greater average reduction in energy intensity per unit of GDP than did Annex I Parties ... the major non-Annex I Parties together had cut fossil subsidies significantly more than Annex I Parties – Everybody agrees that the private sector has a very substantial role to play to limit, reduce emission and mitigate climate change ... however the private sector needs a clear indication from governments." Raul Estrada - Oyuela, AGBM Chairman.

The G-77 and China noted that the developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change and the least able to adapt, and are committed to modify the trends in human-induced emissions through the principle of common but differentiated responsibility. The Chairman of G-77 and China opposed the proposed post Kyoto evolutionary process.

Climate Action Network made it clear in a statement that ‘"industrialised countries must demonstrate actual significant reduction in their greenhouse gas emissions before developing countries should be asked to agree to binding targets in future .... Developing countries can make a greater effort if developed countries increase the overall amount of all forms of development assistance for climate friendly technologies, reform the development assistance and lending guidelines of the World Bank and other multilateral lending institutions ... eliminate the transfer of inefficient, carbon intensive second-hand technologies to developing countries .... The process of developing a meaningful international response to the threat of global warming must be sustainable and based on collaboration, not finger-pointing."

"No one has come to Kyoto to sacrifice national environment interests. Targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions must be ambitious, realistic, cost effective and achievable. Governments have to set the framework which delivers these results. To do so they have to harness market forces to reduce emissions at least cost. [The earth is a self-sustaining system while a market economy can expand almost limitlessly. Combining the two should be done extremely carefully ... The daily Yomiruri]. Voluntary action can contribute. So can new efficiency standards, and fuel switching. Energy is essential to economic development; it is also by far the largest source of man-made CO2 emissions. So, energy will play a critical role in the solution to climate change." Robert Priddle, International Energy Agency.

"We believe that youth involvement is important in environmental and climate issues, for the youth will be the decision-markers of tomorrow. For these reasons it is very important that the countries that have signed Agenda 21 meet their obligations and include youth representatives in their national delegations to different international conferences." The European Youth Delegates.

"The business community plays a unique and positive role in addressing the challenge of potential climate change through efficient use of national resources and energy, creation of economic growth, development and dissemination of innovative technology and technology partnerships .. Many of the tasks of implementing future decisions of governments and responding to subsequent changes in consumption patterns fall to business. Voluntary initiatives are actions undertaken by business and industry to achieve specific goals designed to make progress towards ‘ best practice’ ... Transparency, periodic reporting and review can also be incorporated in voluntary initiatives." Joyoda, Shoichiro, Japan Federation of Economic Organisation . q

(To be continued in the next issue of the newsletter)

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