In the Land of the Rising Sun : Part - II
Kalipada Chatterjee
 


The third Conference of Parties (COP3) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was held in Kyoto, Japan, between December 1-10, 1997. This is the concluding part of the article on COP3.


The Negotiating Debate

The central theme of the COP3 negotiations was the quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives (QELROs) - a clear binding and verifiable commitment by the industrialised countries to reduce their emission below 1990 levels by early next century. In total, 70 proposals from over 30 developed and developing country parties were received subsequent to COP2 in Geneva in 1996 by the FCCC Secretariat. The Adhoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM) prepared a negotiating text for a protocol or another legal instrument, and also a chairman’s text which was the focus of discussion at the eighth and final session of the AGBM in Bonn in October 1997.

Such a commitment will give signals breaking the inertia of ‘business as usual’ and triggering the development and diffusion of new practices, standards, technologies and consumption patterns. Such a result will start to steer the world economy towards a sustainable future.

The Kyoto Conference had a wide range of proposals on targets and timetables for legally binding reduction for the developed nations over the next two or three decades. The main proposals negotiated are given in the box below.

Other issues for the Kyoto negotiations were:

(i) Inclusion of CO2, CH4, N2O in one basket and treat the other three Fluoride gases viz., HFCs, PFCs and SF6 in a separate basket or all the six gases to be included in one basket and in the COP3 itself.
(ii) Methodologies to be used to estimate emissions by sources and removals by sinks in the new instrument.
(iii) Treatment of sinks in the new instrument.
(iv) Emission trading.
(v) Joint implementation
(vi) Clean development fund.
(vii) Evolution issues.
(viii) Policies and measures.
(ix) Continuing to advance the implementation of Article 4.1 of the Convention.
(x) A strong compliance mechanism and closing of all loopholes.

The underlying essence of the entire negotiation in Kyoto was the need for a political will to reach an understanding and agreement on commitments that will lead the process towards achieving the objective of the Convention - stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

The G-77 and China, at every opportunity of the 10-day debate, totally rejected the idea of developing countries accepting any form of greenhouse gas reduction target until and unless these countries’ main agenda - poverty eradication was fully addressed and met. In support of the developing countries stand, Chairman Raul Estrada (AGBM and Committee of the Whole of COP3) made a powerful plea on various occasions that between 1987 and 1993 non-Annex 1 parties as a group recorded a greater average reduction in energy intensity per unit GDP than did Annex 1 parties. At the same time, the biggest economy in the world had a growth in emission equal to their growth in GDP during 1996.

  Target and time table
United States

Reduce emissions to 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012, unspecified reduction below 1990 levels after that. Applies to all six greenhouse gases; carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbon (PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).

A system of tradable permits between nations, joint implementation and credits among Annex I Countries. Insists on developing countries making some meaningful commitment on emission levels.

European Union At least 7.5 per cent below 1990 level by 2005; 15 per cent below by 2010.
Developing nations: G-77 and China Reduction to 1990 levels by 2000; 7.5 per cent below 1990 by 2005; 15 per cent below by 2010. 

Applies to CO2, CH4 and N2O and has preference for a gas by gas approach.

Japan 5 per cent below 1990 by 2008-12
Alliance of Small Islands (AOSIS)  20 per cent below 1990 by 2005. 

The Fluoride Gases

The F-gases -HFCs, PFCs and SF6 are of concern because they have a high global warming potential (GWP) and long atmospheric residence time. HFCs are gases containing only hydrogen, carbon and fluorine, PFCs are gases containing only carbon and fluorine. Current and expected application areas of HFCs and PFCs include refrigeration and air conditioning, fire suppression and explosion protection, aerosols, foam blowing and other applications such as sterilisation equipment. The primary uses of SF6 include gas insulated switch gear and other applications such as insulating medium, a tracer, in leak detectors and in various electronic applications. SF6 is a particularly potent greenhouse gas with a 100-year GWP of 23,900 and an estimated lifetime of about 3,200 years. The GWP of some of the other F gases are: HFC-134a: 1300, HFC-125:2800: HFC-23:11700, HFC-152a: 140, perfluoro-ethane: 9200, perfluoromethane: 6500 times of CO2 (GWP of CO2 is taken as 1).

The consumption of F-gases has increased considerably in industrialised countries with the phasing out of the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).It is difficult to accurately measure the emissions of the F-gases, more so, since in many applications, the F-gases are locked in the equipment for a considerable period before they are emitted into the atmosphere. The protocol is silent on the issue of whether the potential emissions or actual emissions of these F-gases should be taken into account during the commitment period 2008-2012 by the Annex I parties.

Some argued that these F-gases could add as much as 10 per cent to industrialised country emissions by 2010 and it was important that all the six gases viz., CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 should be covered under the protocol in COP3 itself. To miss this opportunity would undermine the entire credibility of the protocol.


Main features of the
Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC

The final Kyoto Protocol is the outcome of eight AGBM meetings during the two and half year period and the 10 days (December 1-10, 1997) of day and night negotiations in the COP3 at Kyoto, Japan, among the signatory nations to the UNFCCC adopted in 1992. The protocol adds a new legal obligation to meet targets and deadlines for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by the industrialised countries.

The main features of the protocol signed at Kyoto on December 10, 1997 are:

Complete absence of any compliance mechanism
Average global emission cuts by 38 developed country parties and countries in transition by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels, particularly
  8 per cent by EU,
  7 per cent by USA,
  6 per cent by Japan,

over their 1990 greenhouse gas emissions.
Cuts to apply to all the six gases viz.,
CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6.
Inclusion among the cuts of net changes in greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals by sinks resulting from direct human induced landuse change and forestry activities, limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation since 1990, measured as verifiable changes in stocks.
The commitment period will be 2008 to 2012.
Each party included in Annex I shall by 2005 have made demonstrable progress in achieving its commitments made in the protocol.
Acceptance of emission trading, joint implementation among the Annex-I country parties and the Clean Development Mechanism (CMD).


Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

The Kyoto Protocol established a Clean Development Mechanism to assist developing country parties in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention and to assist Annex I parties in achieving compliance with their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments under Article 3 of the protocol.


Complete absence of a strong compliance mechanism in the protocol

The total non-compliance by industrialised countries to the aims of the Convention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 leaves a question mark on their compliance of the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. More so, because of the complete absence of a strong compliance mechanism in the protocol.
 

Some aspects of the Kyoto Protocol which are of special interest to developing countries like India are:

1.

Article 2.3 states that the parties included in Annex I shall strive to implement policies and measures under Article 2 in such a way as to minimise adverse effects, including the adverse effects of climate change, effects on international trade, and social and environmental and economic impacts on the parties, especially developing country parties. Similarly article 3.14 states that each party included in Annex I shall strive to achieve the commitments in such a way as to minimise adverse social, environmental and economic impacts on developing country parties.

These aspects need careful monitoring and study by India and other developing countries. In case any adverse impacts are anticipated, corrective actions through the future meetings of the parties should be initiated without loss of time.

2. Article 3.3 on sinks states that net changes in greenhouse gas emissions from sources and removals by sinks resulting from direct human-induced landuse change and forestry activities, is limited to afforestation, reforestation and deforestation since 1990. The article is silent on the question of natural regeneration through better management in the forestry sector. This needs clarification.
3. Article 5.2 states that the methodologies for estimating anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol shall be those accepted by the IPCC and agreed upon by the COP3. Such methodologies need to be circulated by the FCCC to all the Parties and other observers including NGOs for their scrutiny and comments before finally adopting for compliance.
4. Article 6.1(d) states that the acquisition of emission reduction units shall be supplemental to domestic actions for the purpose of commitments under Article 3. The protocol is silent on what percentages of the total commitments will be through domestic actions and through actions which are supplemental.
5. Article 10 of the Kyoto Protocol states that all parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and their specific national and regional developmental priorities, objectives and circumstances, without introducing any new commitments for parties not included in Annex 1, but reaffirming existing commitments in Article 4.1 of the FCCC .... shall formulate where relevant and, to the extent possible, cost-effective national and (where appropriate) regional programmes to improve the quality of local emission factors, activity data and/or models which reflect the socio-economic conditions of such a party for the preparation and periodic updating of national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol using comparable methodologies. Further Article 10(b) (i&ii) states that all parties shall formulate, implement, publish and regularly update national and (where appropriate) regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change - such programmes would inter alia concern the energy, transport and industry sectors as well as agriculture, forestry and waste management.

In view of this Article it is necessary to constitute a number of task forces by the Government of India to initiate country programmes in these areas of economic activities with a view to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and for initiating various scientific and technological R&D programmes to reduce uncertainties related to climate change, the adverse impacts of climate change and economic and social consequences of various response strategies and promote endogenous capacities and capabilities including development and implementation of education and training programmes (Article 10.e).
 

Conclusions

Though the 10-day conference exposed a world divided by wealth and economic priorities, the response from the citizen groups of the world, youth, religious leaders and business was unprecedented. There was an amazing unanimity in terms of the goal that we must leave behind for posterity the legacy of a better world.  q

Calendar of Major FCCC Events and Meetings

1992

May - Adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - New York.
June - Convention signed at the Earth Summit, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

1994 March - Convention enters into force.
1995 March-April - First Conference of the Parties (COP1) - Berlin.
1996

July - Second Conference of the Parties (COP2) - Geneva.
December - Negotiating session - Geneva.

1997

July 28-August 7 - Negotiating session - Bonn.
October 20-31 - Negotiating session - Bonn.
December 1-10 - Third Conference of the Parties (COP3) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - Kyoto, Japan.

1998 November - Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP4) - Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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