Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

South Asian Region is physiographically diverse and ecologically rich in natural and crop-related biodiversity. The present total population of the region is about 1.5 billion, and it is projected to increase to 2.4 billion by 2025. The population is primarily rural-based. The climate in the region is characterized by seasonal weather patterns associated with the monsoon and the occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. The region suffers from unsustainable exploitation of natural resources, increased pollution, land degradation, and other environmental problems because of rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development. Climate change will further add to these stresses.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I Report concludes that for the range of scenarios developed in the IPCC Special report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), the globally averaged surface air temperature is projected by models to warm 1.4 to 5.8 °C by the year 2100 relative to 1990, and globally averaged sea level is projected by models to rise 0.09 to 0.88 m by the year 2100. Changes of this magnitude in the earth’s average surface air temperature and resulting climate change will have adverse impacts on natural and human ecosystems, coastal ecosystems, hydrology and water resources along with food and fiber production. Potential direct effects of climate change such as changes in water availability, crop yields, and inundation of coastal areas, all will have further indirect effects on food security, loss of economic activities and human health.

During the last decade, several country studies have been carried out by various research institutions in the countries in South Asia to assess the impact of climate change on different systems. Major climate change induced threats to some of the South Asian countries (as identified in their country studies) have been summarised below.

Climate Change threats to India

India has a long coastline, measuring about 7500 kms. These low-lying coastal areas are densely populated and place the lives and livelihood of more than seven million people at risk if the sea level rises by even one meter. The economic costs of sea level rise are large amounting to 43 percent of the 1988 GNP, mostly from the loss of land.

Projections of climate change seem to show no significant shift in summer monsoons or cyclones in India at least during the next few decades. Precipitation is expected to increase in some regions and to decrease in others, thus altering the water availability pattern. However, the country’s growing population and the demands for more water by the agriculture, industry and power sectors will put stress on its water resources.

Wheat yields are likely to increase with the rise in rainfall foreseen by CSIRO models, but higher temperatures would depress yields of both wheat and rice.

Climate Change Induced threats to Bangladesh

About 115 million people - nearly 800 per square kilometer - live in the low-lying delta of three major rivers, the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna. With a one-meter relative sea level rise, 17.5 percent of the country will be inundated, displacing 13 million people, about 11 percent of the population. The Sundarbans, the largest mangrove forest in the world, would probably be destroyed. This unique habitat for plant and animal species is already threatened by salt intrusion, partly because the flow of the Ganges in the dry season was diminished after a dam was constructed to divert water to Calcutta.

A definite trend towards increasing rainfall is expected to accompany climate change in Bangladesh. More than one-fifth of the country’s monsoon rice land would be flooded. Considering the possibility of greater variability in precipitation, water management is the key adaptation issue, with improved irrigation facilities to stabilize food grain production.

Coastal aquaculture (particularly shrimp) would be overwhelmed, although it is possible that it could displace agriculture or migrate landward. Coastal islands, home to many thousands of people and important areas of biological diversity for both plants and animals, would be "totally lost."

Diarrheal diseases spread by floods, a major health hazard, will only get worse. Salt intrusion of both ground and surface water, now causing some difficulties, will become more of a problem.

The cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal will grow "many fold," and the erosion would mar the southeastern beach near Cox’s Bazar, one of the longest stretches in the world and a major tourist attraction.

The impact of climate change on the Bangladesh economy would be extremely adverse: an annual loss of $1 billion of GDP by 2010 and $5 billion by 2070.

Climate Change threats to Pakistan

The most significant impact of climate change on Pakistan is likely to come from the increased variation of the monsoons. Doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere, according to some models, could increase average summer monsoon rains up by 60 percent. Resulting floods would hit the densely populated areas, which produce most of the food, fiber and fodder in the country; they would destroy irrigation systems and crops, especially cotton, which is the main cash crop of Pakistan. Erosion and landslides from the aggravated rains would jeopardize the fragile livelihoods of people in the mountain ecosystems. Another frequently used model, by contrast, foresees summer monsoon rains decreasing, placing heavy stress on winter wheat, the staple food.

Although Pakistan is less vulnerable to sea level rise than other countries in the South Asian region, the shoreline of its only major coastal city, Karachi, has retreated in recent decades. More severe monsoons and sea level rise may flood the city’s street for longer periods. The Indus delta, south of Karachi, is already retreating because of a sharply reduced silt load and could lose up to 25 percent of its area if the sea rises. Saline water would intrude and mangroves would be destroyed, harming fisheries, which account for 30 percent of exports. Coastal resources will need more protection.

Pakistani forests are dwindling, now constituting less than five percent of the nation’s area. Small shifts in average temperature would lead to large shifts in the latitude of optimal growing zones for many tree species.

Climate change could increase heat stroke deaths, which are correlated with temperature spikes and now kill dozens every year. Increased rain would fill more stagnant ponds, which would lead to more water-borne diseases and malaria unless more control was exerted.

Climate Change threats to Sri Lanka

In Sri Lanka, impacts on the nation’s coastal area – site of the largest concentration of people and economic activity – will be most severe with flooding and storm surges, beaches narrowed by erosion - leading to possible damage to hotels - and salt water invasion of estuaries and aquifers. The coastal population estimated at about 7.5 million in 2000 will become almost double by 2070.

Population growth has already strained the land. In the last century, the amount of land per person has shrunk to one seventh of its former size. Agricultural activity has not declined and the forests have suffered. Pollution and climate change have already affected water resources, but measuring the impact is difficult. Although rainfall may increase, if it is due to extreme events, much of the water may be lost through runoff to the sea. Large losses can be expected in paddies, which are already affected by flooding, poor water, saline intrusion and iron toxicity.

Sri Lanka is already quite vulnerable to drought and an increase in drought is assumed. So although larger harvests to feed an increasing number of mouths will require more water, less will be available and it will need to be managed more efficiently.

In the vital agriculture sector, more than one-fourth of the nation’s GNP, projected flooding will ruin some farmland; rising seas and invading salt water will harm more. Sri Lanka’s variety of growing zones gives it the ability to diversify and be less dependent on fluctuations of rice and wheat.

Adaptation to Climate Change

The suitability of adaptation strategies to different climatic environments will vary across the diverse subregions and land uses of the region. However, the adaptive options for South Asia as a whole include new temperature and pest-resistant crop varieties; new technologies to reduce crop yield loss; development of high-yielding crop varieties resistant to salt, submergence and drought; improvements in irrigation efficiency; and integrated approaches to river basin and coastal zone management; more efficient water management and water sharing specially in dry periods; strengthening coastal embankments; construction of coastal shelters from rising seas, and planting of more trees; storm alert system; and focus on energy efficiency in appliances, equipment and industrial processes, etc.

Experience with adaptation to climate variability and extremes can be drawn upon to develop appropriate strategies for adapting to anticipated climate changes. Adaptation to current climate variability and extremes often produces benefits as well as forms a basis for coping with future climate change. However, experience also demonstrates that there are constraints in achieving adaptation to the fullest possible extent. In addition, maladaptation, such as promoting development in risk-prone locations, can occur due to decisions based on short-term considerations, neglect of known climatic variability, insufficient information, and over reliance on insurance mechanisms.

The ability of human systems to adapt to and cope with the climate change depends on such factors as wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources and management capabilities. There is potential for developed and developing countries to enhance and/or acquire adaptive capabilities. Population and communities are highly variable in their endowments with these attributes, and the developing countries are generally poorest in this regard. As a result, they have lesser capacity to adapt and are more vulnerable to climate change damages, just as they are vulnerable to other stresses. The poor are forced to live under extremely adversed conditions.

The countries in South Asia in general have different priorities like poverty eradication through economic development and employment generation etc., and better quality of life for its citizens. However, due to resource constraints and very often lack of technical and management know-how, these countries suffer from low level of awareness about climate change issues, lack of capacities for scientific assessment of impacts and inability to adapt to adverse impacts of climate change.

Any capital intensive option for adaptation to climate change is totally ruled out for South Asian countries. However, these countries suffer from various natural calamities like floods, droughts and cyclones from time to time. The traditional coping up strategies followed by the communities during these calamities should be examined, their applicability in adadptation to adverse impacts of climate change should be tested and the communities made aware of these practices to increase their resilience. NGOs and community based organisation can play a crucial role in this. Such learnings from community based actions may provide important inputs for preparing strategies for adaptation to climate change.

In addition, sound data and information on vulnerability of systems and communities and suitable adaptation / mitigation alternatives becomes very essential and capacity of developing countries for this should be built up. Following are high priorities for narrowing down gaps between current knowledge and policy making needs in developing countries for addressing the climate change threat:

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